A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
